Sunday, July 19, 2009

Meltdown of American Foreign Policy - What's gone wrong?

If you remember the Afghan - Russian War, you will recall the influence and impact of America's foreign policy and intelligence community. One will recall the strategic implications of the US siding with the Afghan freedom fighters. One will recall the significance of minimizing the spread of Russian influence and strength in the region. As such, the US made a calculated decision to support those fighting on behalf of Afghanistan. Looking back at history, one can conclude this was a smart and tactical decision that yielded the desired results. The Russians left Afghanistan without a win and America's enemy at the time was defeated.

Now we turn to the most recent Iraq - US war, which started post 9-11. Without denial, Saddam was a dictator and tyrant who deserved to be held accountable for his actions. I have no objections to his outcome, as during his Presidency, he was responsible for the killings on thousands of innocent people. But let's discuss the impact of America's intervention in this war? Before the war started, the American administration (at the time led by President Bush) must have had a vision for Iraq. Let's discuss these visions one by one:

1. To provide democracy for Iraqis: I don't believe this was the case at all. If democracy was the desired outcome and only desired outcome, why wouldn't America intervene in the numerous hot spots of the world, where democracy remains just a dream?

2. To have a direct impact on the control of Iraqi oil: I consider this to be one of the main reasons of the Iraq war. As China and India (both of whom account for almost 33% of the world's population) become more industrialized, their demand for oil will increase. As these countries transition from 3rd world status to 2nd and 1st world status, their needs have changed. For various Chinese and Indians, having a car used to be a luxury for a small percentage of society. As American jobs have been offshored to India & China(to please shareholders of publicly traded companies), those respective economies have grown, while ours remains stagnant, if not contracting. Imagine a world where the demand for oil was greater than the supply? Now imagine the US without access to this supply? Think of who the main oil producers are in this world: Venezuela (whom we have a rocky relationship with), Iran (whom we have a rocky relationship with) and Saudi (a country who suppresses a women's right to drive). If America lost access and control to Iraqi oil, gasoline could easily reach $10 per gallon (as is almost the case in many European countries).

3. To protect Israel's security: Many people will say this was a reason to justify the war, but I feel this argument is not as strong as item 2 above and item 4 below.

4. To minimize Iran's strength in the region: To me, this point has significance and merit. Unfortunately, it also shows how weak American foreign policy has become, as compared to our recent history. In brief, America intended to invade Iraq to weaken Iran's influence in the region. Unfortunately, the opposite has happened. Iranian intelligence, influence, military, and more now have a significant say in daily Iraqi affairs. Iran has infiltrated Iraq's key decision making body and has elevated its grasp and power in region.

If America is to once again become the leader in world affairs, it needs to plan, conduct, and wrap up its operations more strategically. It is time to revisit who are allies are and what they each independently represent.

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