Afghanistan, Opium, and the Taliban

Recent developments in Afghanistan have led many to debate what America’s best course of action should entail. The amount that America has invested from a logistics, financial, and philosophical perspective proves that “quitting,” is not an option. The current dilemma facing America’s political brain trust is simple: How does America move forward in a strategic format that will allow it to achieve its desired results?

I am of the opinion that America’s resources are being mismanaged in Afghanistan. With the Obama administration split on how to manage the war and with the public becoming restless and the media more engaging, now might be a time to indiscriminately revisit our strategy.

The Taliban / Al Qaeda movement in Afghanistan appears to be well founded. Unlike the American war in Afghanistan, which is funded by American tax payers, the source of funds for the Taliban is quite different. Consider the following. Are the Taliban in Afghanistan funded by Afghani tax revenue? One can easily conclude this answer to be no. Are the Taliban in Afghanistan funded by foreign bank transfers? Absolutely not, as American intelligence is capable of tracing every source of international wire transfer. Are the Taliban selling goods and services in Afghanistan that are enabling them to fully fund themselves? Once again, revenue from domestic goods would hardly provide the adequate finances for such an expensive war.

It is evident that the Taliban is functionally operative, well equipped, organized, and appropriately funded. It is also clear that the sources of “funding,” must be coming from within Afghanistan. As such, it is important to consider the impact of Afghanistan’s opium production in relation to the Taliban’s self funding. It is easy to forget that Afghanistan has among the largest producing fields of opium in the world. This opium is directly financing the Taliban in Afghanistan.

My suggestion to the decision makers in Washington is plain. Instead of dropping bombs that kill militants and innocent civilians, why not place your resources on the core problem. If you eliminate the opportunity for the Taliban to constantly fund themselves, you will eliminate their ability to restock and reenergize. Additionally, you will build great goodwill amongst the Afghani civilians, many of which are parents, whom wish to keep their children away from these addictive drugs.

Again, ask yourself this question. How do you win the hearts and minds of a country that distrusts you? Do you erratically drop bombs on populated areas or do you focus on the youth of the country? When bombs are dropped on civilians and innocence is lost, revenge becomes the Afghans course of action.

All wars have a source of funding. The source of the Taliban’s funding is pretty clear, yet America’s response has been disillusioned and mismanaged. If America is committed to winning the war in Afghanistan, it is time they revise their course of action. Destroy all the opium fields and you will vastly reduce the Taliban’s abilities. Continuing to bomb the country and causing collateral damage will not win this war. It is time the American administration recognizes that if you control the source of the Taliban’s funding, you will control the war.

Sending another 40,000 troops to Afghanistan or possibly having Muslim nations become an international peacekeeping presence will only lead to more death, destruction, and failure.

September 11th - Eight Years Later

It has been almost one decade since the horrible events of 9/11 took place. I wanted to share some insights on the beauty of America and humanity in general, as this tragic event, has directly impacted me in various ways.

All throughout my life, I don't ever recall experiencing discrimination prior to 9/11. At the time of 9/11, I was working for a public accounting firm. A few months after 9/11, one of the partners in the firm came up to me and without hesitation told me that I was starting to look like a terrorist due to my maintaining a small beard. I don't believe he realized the impact of his statement, nor do I believe his statement was intended to harm, but it was a comment that definitely had more meaning after 9/11.

At a subsequent place of employment, I had a manager who was unaware of my Syrian origin. After finding out of my origin, the manager sarcastically stated that "had I known you were Syrian prior to hiring you, I would not have hired a terrorist." Once again, I do not believe this comment was made by a racist, etc., but rather made by someone who was using bad judgment.

The 3rd incident that comes to mind was when my wife and I were in an elevator at the airport. One lady, with a baby in a stroller freaked out when she saw my wife and me in the elevator with her and the doors closing. She immediately got out of the elevator with her baby. I genuinely felt sorry for this lady afterwards, as fear caused this reaction. It was upsetting, but something out of my control.

Since moving to DC in 2005, I have been fortunate to see the beautiful work of interfaith organizations, working in harmony to make America a more pluralistic society. Every Friday afternoon, I am required to attend a prayer service at a mosque. With options being limited due to a one hour lunch break, a local church has opened its doors for the Muslim community to allow us to have our service. It is absolutely amazing and remarkable that opportunities for dialogue have become stronger post 9/11. Kudos to the Church of the Epiphany for this kind gesture. http://www.epiphanydc.org

Additionally, about a year ago, I was working from home and had to attend the Friday service. As I recently moved to Northern Virginia, I was unaware of local facilities, but after doing some online research, I found another interfaith organization that had made its facilities open for the service. This facility, Northern Virginia Hebrew Congregation, http://www.nvhcreston.org/, enabled Muslims to come to a Jewish Center for prayer services.

Both of the above instances reiterated to me what is right about America and provides hope for the future. Terrorism has no place in any religion and under no circumstances can be condoned, promoted, or validated. It is incomprehensible for anyone to disrespect the value of life. If more energy was spent on killing each other with kindness, rather than weapons, humanity would reap the benefits.

Knock Knock, it’s me Uncle Sam: I am sure you know by now that US unemployment is at its highest levels since the great depression. But did you also know that I am in need of hiring half a million talented individuals as soon as possible?

Citizens of the great state of Michigan, rich in American history, why are you not applying for my jobs? You led the American automobile revolution and now you have the opportunity to lead the green job revolution. 15% of your residents are seeking jobs and I have them. I know my hiring process is broken, but if you come and work with me, together we can fix this deficiency. Did you also know that the benefits I offer often surpass those of the private sector?

Are you interested in going to grad school? If so, I can help through my generous education stipends. Do you want quality health insurance with minimal premiums? If yes, I am your man. Looking for 4 day work weeks with various flex time options to minimize travel expenses and protect our environment? I can easily be reached 24/7 at www.usajobs.gov.

I have been working on your behalf for almost 200 years and now I need your help. The social security administration estimates by 2041, they will only be able to pay out 78% of required retiree benefits. Is this how you want your retirement to be spent? I could use some innovative ideas to ensure the benefits remain at 100%. Do you have the needed creativity?

The pain of having these jobs unfilled has caused my hair to gray. Help me rebuild our economy and protect our future by coming and working for the federal government.

Meltdown of American Foreign Policy - What's gone wrong?

If you remember the Afghan - Russian War, you will recall the influence and impact of America's foreign policy and intelligence community. One will recall the strategic implications of the US siding with the Afghan freedom fighters. One will recall the significance of minimizing the spread of Russian influence and strength in the region. As such, the US made a calculated decision to support those fighting on behalf of Afghanistan. Looking back at history, one can conclude this was a smart and tactical decision that yielded the desired results. The Russians left Afghanistan without a win and America's enemy at the time was defeated.

Now we turn to the most recent Iraq - US war, which started post 9-11. Without denial, Saddam was a dictator and tyrant who deserved to be held accountable for his actions. I have no objections to his outcome, as during his Presidency, he was responsible for the killings on thousands of innocent people. But let's discuss the impact of America's intervention in this war? Before the war started, the American administration (at the time led by President Bush) must have had a vision for Iraq. Let's discuss these visions one by one:

1. To provide democracy for Iraqis: I don't believe this was the case at all. If democracy was the desired outcome and only desired outcome, why wouldn't America intervene in the numerous hot spots of the world, where democracy remains just a dream?

2. To have a direct impact on the control of Iraqi oil: I consider this to be one of the main reasons of the Iraq war. As China and India (both of whom account for almost 33% of the world's population) become more industrialized, their demand for oil will increase. As these countries transition from 3rd world status to 2nd and 1st world status, their needs have changed. For various Chinese and Indians, having a car used to be a luxury for a small percentage of society. As American jobs have been offshored to India & China(to please shareholders of publicly traded companies), those respective economies have grown, while ours remains stagnant, if not contracting. Imagine a world where the demand for oil was greater than the supply? Now imagine the US without access to this supply? Think of who the main oil producers are in this world: Venezuela (whom we have a rocky relationship with), Iran (whom we have a rocky relationship with) and Saudi (a country who suppresses a women's right to drive). If America lost access and control to Iraqi oil, gasoline could easily reach $10 per gallon (as is almost the case in many European countries).

3. To protect Israel's security: Many people will say this was a reason to justify the war, but I feel this argument is not as strong as item 2 above and item 4 below.

4. To minimize Iran's strength in the region: To me, this point has significance and merit. Unfortunately, it also shows how weak American foreign policy has become, as compared to our recent history. In brief, America intended to invade Iraq to weaken Iran's influence in the region. Unfortunately, the opposite has happened. Iranian intelligence, influence, military, and more now have a significant say in daily Iraqi affairs. Iran has infiltrated Iraq's key decision making body and has elevated its grasp and power in region.

If America is to once again become the leader in world affairs, it needs to plan, conduct, and wrap up its operations more strategically. It is time to revisit who are allies are and what they each independently represent.

Financial Statement Summary of Navigant Consulting (Ticker: NCI)


Segment Overview

The financials of Navigant Consulting are derived from four separate operating segments. These segments include consulting income generated from 1. North American Dispute and Investigative Services, 2. North American Business Consulting Services, 3. International Consulting Services, and 4. Economic Consulting Services. Within the past three years (2008 – 2006), almost 90% of revenues and profits have been generated solely based on activities pertaining to North American services.

Concentration of Revenues

Navigant’s revenues are reliant on a select basis of clients and thus create potential risk. During the past three 10K filings (2006 – 2008), almost 23% of total revenues were attributed to 20 clients. Furthermore, Navigant’s top 10 clients amount to 15% of total revenues in the same filing period. Between 2006 and 2008, there were no clients that accounted for more than 5 percent of total revenues.


Financial Data

Although Navigant has seen consecutive revenue growth each year since 2004, the last five quarters have produced opposite results. Since the 1st quarter of 2008 until the most recent 1st quarter of 2009, revenues have decreased in 5 consecutive quarters. Various red flags can be derived from the financial data associated with the past 5 quarters:

1. The company has added an additional 1.5% of staff, yet revenues have decreased by 12%.

2. Net income has decreased by 50%, yet billing utilizations have only decreased by 8%.

3. Cash and cash equivalents have decreased by 12%, yet company debt has only decreased by 2%.

4. Receivables have decreased by 9%, yet average days outstanding for receivables have increased by 5%.

In short, the last five reporting quarters of Navigant Consulting have been adversely impacted by the recent economic downturn. Although Navigant has acquired almost 10 reputable businesses since 2006, the financial returns have yet to justify this acquisition.

By: Mulham Shbeib
July 2009

Financial Statement Trends of Navigant Consulting (NCI), a Publicly Traded Company

In May 2008, Navigant Consulting acquired Chicago Partners LLC for $73 million. Chicago Partners was a 90 person consultant firm focused on economic and financial analyses of legal and business issues principally for law firms, corporations and government agencies. As such, this acquisition led to the creation of Navigant’s fourth business segment, “Economic Consulting Services.”

In the 1st quarter of 2009, this new segment accounted for 8% of total revenues, even though it comprised only 5% of total staff. With an average billable rate of $343 per hour as compared to an average of $242 for Navigant's other three segments, the future for “Economic Consulting Services” appears to be filled with financial potential, continued growth opportunity, and bottom line results. Furthermore, this segment maintains a 96% billing utilization, as compared to an average of 76% for the other three segments. This newest segment is the only operation experiencing significant growth and as such, should positively impact Navigant’s financial statement trends.

In review of the financials between 2006 and 1st quarter 2009, a few prominent financial trends are worth noting:

1. Between 2006 and 2008, revenue increased almost 20%, yet net income decreased by nearly 25%. This is largely due in part to Navigant’s proactive acquisition strategy. With current economic conditions being less predictable and more challenging, Navigant will need to undertake cost savings initiatives in order to protect profitability. A few items presently being discussed include staff reductions, office space consolidations, and salary freezes.

2. Due to the current market situation associated with the world economy, Navigant’s total revenues, margins and profits are likely to be impacted by a significant decline. As the most recent 2009 10Q filing presents, significant challenges appear on the horizon. For instance, between 4th quarter 2008 and 1st quarter 2009; cash has decreased by 65%, while accounts payable has increased by 24%. As of March 31, 2009, Navigant had more accounts payable than cash on hand. Additionally, Navigant has now had 5 consecutive quarters of revenue decline.

3. Between 4th quarter 2008 and 1st quarter 2009, Navigant’s debt has increased by almost $30 million to $260 million. This 12% increase from the prior quarter presents significant risk to Navigant, as their present credit line is $275 million, with an option to increase to $375 million. As debt increases and revenue and cash decrease, management is obligated to make cost savings decisions.

By: Mulham Shbeib

July 2009

American Foreign Policy: A few quick thoughts

I wanted to share a few observations and welcome any comments:

1. America is the greatest country in the world in terms of opportunity, diversity, and political process.

2. Our foreign policy shows exactly what is right and wrong with America.

The Good: We give the most in humanitarian aid (i.e. National Disaster Aid, African Aid, etc.)

The Bad: Our foreign aid often goes to countries that suppress democracy and freedom.

A few questions:

1. Why does a democratic country such as USA give foreign aid to countries that violate all of our principles that our military fights for (freedom, etc.)?

2. Is America concerned about democracy or stability in the Middle East? Our foreign aid to ruthless leaders such as Hosni Mubarak provides fictional stability. If America pushes demoracy in Egypt, they will reap the benefits in numerous ways.

3. Why does America spend billions on unnecessary wars? We have excellent covert operations that could have liquidated Saddam and numerous tyrants. The money being spent on these wars could easily be spent on education, health care, homeless, US economic development, and more. On top of this, think of how many lives would have been saved?

4. Wars don't build bridges, but rather create hate.

5. Our foreign policy is causing us to fall behind to China, India, and other developing countries. Our currency is being devalued in trading, our students aren't be as academically challenged as our world counterparts, and families are spending less time with one another.

Poverty enriched the mind of the confused
Disillusioned by his surroundings, no tears could flow
But then the child woke up, ready to accept adulthood
One problem, he was 12, mother 25, father imprisoned

What is hunger if I am already starving?
Open doors and closed hearts keep me thirsty
Dressed yet naked, awake while sleeping

Filled with potential, yet to be discovered
24.7.365; he dreams

Boundary extended.

A short poem by Mulham Shbeib, 1/31/9.

This was originally written in September 2002 for the USF Oracle.

http://media.www.usforacle.com/2.6025/1.632481

Published: Tuesday, September 17, 2002
Updated: Thursday, September 4, 2008

America needs a revision of its foreign policy

Many of us have become captivated with President Bush’s inclination to declare war against Saddam Hussein. As an American Muslim with Arab origin, I, too, agree that Saddam presents greater harm than good. But the question is, to whom is this harm directed? It is not a harm presented predominantly to American civilians but harm presented to his own people. This is a man who has gassed his own people, tortured his own citizens, attacked his Arab neighbors and more.

If our American leadership is determined to eliminate Saddam, it must be done so in a well-structured plan beyond our imagination. It must also be diagrammed with a specific purpose, presented to American citizens and the world. For almost 10 years now, Iraq has been under stringent United Nations restrictions and embargoes. These embargoes further displaced those less fortunate and also created a further separation between the elite and the poor (i.e. Saddam and his citizens.) The ordinary Iraqi citizen is less capable, more scared and increasingly skeptical of working with any sovereign nation to oust Saddam than he was a decade ago.

If America is triumphant in toppling Saddam, are we willing to nation-build? This has been tried in Afghanistan, and President Hamid Karzai and his cabinet have already had various assassination attempts on their lives. Is American foreign policy inclined to spread its forces thin, with potential flare-ups on the rise in Africa, the Far East and more? Is America ready to promote democracy in one country where the majority of the people live below the international poverty line?

Also, if America is readily intending to promote democracy in Iraq, why has it not wanted to promote democracy in other Middle Eastern countries? The country of Egypt currently receives $2 billion a year in foreign aid, yet if any Egyptian citizen speaks up against the Egyptian president, he is sentenced to hard time in jail.

After spending two months in the Middle East this summer, I realize animosity towards Americans is at an all-time high. But the rationale is not what you might think. Arabs are currently being suppressed by their leaders in Egypt, Jordan and all over the Middle East. Both of these countries (Egypt and Jordan) are among the biggest recipients of American foreign aid. This foreign aid controls the peoples’ lives, reduces their freedoms, strengthens the dictatorships’ control and is not used for economic prosperity but rather for mental manipulation.

If America is genuinely seeking to have a more peaceful world, we must question what foreign policy of the world put us in this predicament? Do not forget that only 20 years ago, Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden were American allies, funded with technology, financing, intelligence and more.

As President John F. Kennedy once said, “Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country.”

Mulham Shbeib is a USF alumnus.